The biggest headwind to the consumption story in FY23 is a sharp decline in government subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuel, and overall decline in revenue expenditure net of interest payments. This, analysts say, will adversely impact purchasing power of households at the lower end of the income pyramid, translating into lower spending on consumer goods and services.
The early bird results for the January-March 2022 quarter (Q4FY22) hint at a slowdown in corporate sector growth in the upcoming quarters. The combined net sales of the 81 early bird companies in the Business Standard sample were up 15.1 per cent year-on-year in Q4FY22; this was less than the 15.9 per cent YoY jump reported in Q3FY22. The slowdown could be much stronger for the domestic market-focused companies, including those in the banking, finance, and insurance (BFSI) space.
Weakness in HDFC Bank's net interest margin (NIM) might have bottomed out in the July-September quarter (Q2-FY24), analysts said on Tuesday, as most of the merger-related one-time adjustments have been done. The bank, they believe, should be able to grow from here on, allowing the stock to reverse its underperformance. "The weak NIM print was not unexpected given the merger and regulatory impact caused by the incremental cash reserve ratio (ICRR; 5-10 bps for the quarter).
The decline of over 5 per cent in PB Fintech's shares (the parent company of PolicyBazaar) in the past two days presents an opportunity for long-term investors to consider buying the stock, suggest analysts. By comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has remained flat during the same period with a negligible gain of 40 points, or 0.06 per cent. Analysts believe that the recent selling is "overdone", as the company behind the online insurance portal remains committed to achieving profitability, and the potential threat from the government's online insurance portal, Bima Sugam, might be embellished.
After new-age tech companies reported better-than-expected June quarter (Q1FY23) results, analysts said it will be a long road to recovery for their respective businesses and the stock prices. Moreover, brokerages differ on whether it is the right time to own these stocks. The common thread, however, that runs across most brokerages is Zomato, where they suggest buying the stock with the one-year target price ranging between Rs 60 - 115, translating into an upside of around 9 - 109 per cent from the current levels. The company's gross order value (GOV) of food delivery jumped 10 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 42 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q1, aided largely by growth in volume, and mild growth in average order value (AOV) at 1-2 per cent. The company also broke even on an adjusted Ebitda basis during the quarter.
The stock of India's largest agrochemical player - UPL (formerly United Phosphorus) - fell 2.8 per cent in trade. It was among the top losers in the BSE 100 on Tuesday. Weak 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) performance and muted near-term outlook led to the decline. The company reported lacklustre growth in revenue of 4 per cent on the back of a price reduction of 3 per cent and volume growth of 1 per cent.
The stock of the retail chain Avenue Supermarts (Dmart) was the biggest loser in the BSE 100 Index shedding 4.35 per cent on Thursday and added to these losses on Monday by falling an additional 1.3 per cent. The Street was reacting to lower than expected operational performance by the company in the March quarter. The country's largest listed retailer by market capitalisation reported a 20 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in its top line to Rs 10,337 crore.
The "asset-right" strategy, reiterated by ITC chairman Sanjiv Puri during the company's 112th annual general meeting (AGM) on August 11, received a thumbs up from the analysts. They, however, believe that sustained earnings growth and synergies with the demerged hotel's vertical will help the stock break out from the ongoing consolidation. "The stock is expected to consolidate between Rs 420 and Rs 450 in the near future.
The ruble has recouped most of its losses and become the top-performing currency globally. It continues to gain and is up 60 per cent against the US dollar from its lows in the first week of March. The ruble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on Tuesday against a record low of 139 on March 7.
HDFC Bank Q1FY24 results analysis: Shares of HDFC Bank, the world's seventh largest financial entity, have advanced 2 per cent in two days, as against 1 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex, after the lender reported its April-June quarter (Q1) results for financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on July 17. The S&P BSE Bankex index, meanwhile, has gained 1.3 per cent. While the near-term stock performance may remain sideways due to merger-related hiccups, analysts remain bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
Highly-rated finance firms and housing finance companies are expected to benefit from the absence of Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) from the bond market once it merges with the HDFC Bank in early FY24. Post merger, the bond market is expected to become less crowded, which will ease fund raising conditions for other players in the field. It may perhaps also compress the spread for debt instruments floated by housing finance companies (HFCs) over 10-year government bonds, subject to demand and supply conditions.
'The deal pipeline across products is robust for 2024.'
'The Street is divided on when we could recover from demonetisation.' 'The government believes it is a pain at best for two quarters.' 'Some analysts feel the impact could be felt for two-three quarters and some that it could last for 12 to 15 months.' 'Investors are stuck in a no-action zone.'
After outperforming the broader market and their public sector peers for the better part of the post-Lehman period, private sector banks - such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank - are now underperforming. Last week, the Nifty Private Bank index was up just 6 per cent year-to-date in the calendar year 2021, against nearly 13 per cent rally in the Bank Nifty and a 15 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty50. Public sector (PSU) banks, such as State bank of India, Bank of Baroda, and Punjab National Bank, are now rally leaders and outperforming the broader market. The Nifty PSU Bank index was up 42 per cent since the beginning of this calendar year. But on a longer term, the Nifty Private Bank index is up 101 per cent since March 2016, against a 118 per cent rally in the Bank Nifty and just 2 per cent rise in the Nifty PSU Bank index in the period.
'Some risks to this market rally include inflation, erratic weather conditions, rising crude prices, slowing global growth and the resultant impact on domestic exports, escalation in geopolitical tensions.'
Riding on an improved show across parameters, TVS Motor (TVS) outperformed larger two-wheeler peers Hero MotoCorp (Hero) and Bajaj Auto (Bajaj) during the September (Q2 of FY23) quarter. The Chennai-based firm, which has the most-diversified portfolio among two-wheeler majors, posted a 28 per cent jump in revenues. This compares to 18 per cent growth for Bajaj Auto and single-digit uptick for Hero MotoCorp.
Given that there has been no negative news flow around Zomato, analysts believe it's time to lap up the shares at lower levels.
As many as seven firms, including JM Financial, Ernst and Young and Deloitte, have bid for managing the strategic sale of IDBI Bank. These firms would make a virtual presentation before the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management, which is handling the sale process, on August 10, according to a notice by DIPAM. The firms that have bid for acting as transaction advisor are Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India LLP, Ernst and Young LLP, ICICI Securities, JM Financial Ltd, KPMG, RBSA Capital Advisors LLP and SBI Capital Markets.
The housing finance major issued non-convertible debentures and warrants to raise another Rs 4,000.03 crore.
The market's sensitivity to the US Fed's balance sheet changes makes it vulnerable to the possible tapering of the bond buying programme and the resulting stagnation or even shrinkage in the balance sheet.
Emerging markets such as India have always run higher inflation rates than developed economies such as the US and countries of Western Europe. But for the first time in the past 30 years, the US reported a higher consumer price inflation (CPI) rate than India in five consecutive months. The US reported a CPI rate of 7.5 per cent in January 2022 against 6.01 per cent in India and analysts expect the trend to continue for at least a few months more
'He was the most thoughtful corporate person I encountered.'
In a filing to the BSE, United Spirits said the manager to the open offer, JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd has informed that the offer price shall remain at Rs 1,440 per equity share.
Competitive price will face stiff challenge from incumbents such as DD Free Dish
Bandhan Bank has filed a draft red herring prospectus with Sebi for an IPO of up to 119 million equity shares, with face value of Rs 10 each.
Initial public offerings (IPOs) by start-ups are bringing cheer to investors and investment bankers alike. After food delivery company Zomato, Nykaa has issued the fattest pay cheque to the managers of its share sale -- Rs 148 crore, or 2.8 per cent of its issue proceeds of Rs 5,300 crore. In absolute terms, this is the second-highest amount paid to investment bankers for handling an IPO, while in percentage terms, it is the highest for large IPOs (>$300 million) in the last one year, shows an analysis of the data provided by Prime Database, a primary market tracker.
Falling revenues, increased capex, and first full year of spectrum debt may make things worse
Markets
A fourth of the property market is cash-based and this has affected home sales after high value notes were scrapped.
At least three brokerages, two domestic and one global, have said the company could cut its revenue growth guidance again in dollar terms
'Start-ups that generate a majority of their income in India are likely to opt for an Indian listing.'
Issues Rs 358 crore interim dividend, 1:10 bonus and 10:1 split
Thirteen companies have joined the Rs 1-trillion-plus market capitalisation club this year, so far. This even as the benchmark Sensex has gained less than 3 per cent on a year-to-date basis, underscoring the bullish undercurrent in the broader market. The trend shows a harsh second wave of Covid-19, subsequent lockdowns, and hit to the economic activity has made little dent into India Inc or shareholders' wealth. At the start of the year, there were 29 companies with a market value of more than Rs 1 trillion.
The IOC share sale is the fourth disinvestment this fiscal but the biggest in 2015-16 so far.
The 30-share Sensex ended up 142 points at 29,462 and the 50-share Nifty gained 26 points to end at 8,895.
Eight investment banks including HSBC and India's ICICI Securities and SBI Capital have submitted bids to manage a 10-per cent stake divestment in state-owned Coal India.
Offer size could vary from Rs 1,200 cr to Rs 2,000 cr
About 48.5 million shares, or 20 per cent of the shares on offer, are reserved for retail investors
The IOC stake sale will, however, dwarf in front of Rs 22,557 crore or Rs 225.57 billion that the government raised through a stake sale in Coal India Ltd last year.
Exuding confidence in setting up a profitable banking venture, industrialist Anil Ambani on Tuesday said the proposed bank will help lower Reliance Capital's debt to one-fourth of current levels and would be listed as a separate entity in three years.
